Recruiting snapshot: Which positions and states are hot in the Class of 2024?  (2024)

The NFL Draft is one of the most anticipated events of the year for recruiting analysts such as Andrew Ivins. It’s when he and others who rank recruits are judged for their ability to project high school prospects as future first-round draft picks.

“We’re always trying to perfect the process, get better with a lot of self scouting,” said Ivins, the Director of Scouting for 247Sports.

“How does a (guy) like Calijah Kancey fall through the cracks and end up at Pittsburgh?” he says of the 2022 ACC Defensive Player of the Year, who was a three-star prospect ranked No. 837 in the 247Sports Composite in the Class of 2019. “Were we wrong or was he an outlier? The data shows he is kind of one of one — an outlier.”

Football fans will be glued to the draft over the next couple of days. Ivins will too, but he will also be pouring over more film, talking to recruits and college staffers, and adjusting the rankings of thousands of players in the next three recruiting cycles. It’s an endless process he anchors for one of the handful of national recruiting services — and it’s often thankless.

Right or wrong, the north star for most of those services is projecting those high school players as pros. Size, speed and production are all important factors in making the national rankings early in your high school career, Ivins said. By the time players are juniors and seniors, there’s enough hard data from combines, camps and games to expand the size of the rankings from a few hundred to thousands.

“I think anytime we do a rankings update, it’s like, ‘Oh, this kid slipped back 20 spots.’ Well, did he really?” Ivins said. “Because in our eyes his grade didn’t change. We’ve just uncovered someone we didn’t know about before, or we got more information about some other guy. I always tell people this: The NFL draft serves as the compass for us. If you look at the NFL, their regional scouts go out on the road during the season, collect information, and then they go into all-star games, and then you have pro days, and you have the scouting combine, and the board shuffles even more. Those guys get interviews and sit downs and private workouts. So it’s a fluid process.

“Some regions — just because of how the calendar is set up right now — you’ve got a little more information than others. For us, we’re always going to push guys that meet certain (size) criteria. We’re going to have them higher because the last thing we want to do is rank a guy high (who doesn’t have the measurables), and then come crashing all the way down. That’s what we want to avoid.”

As of this past Tuesday, there were 1,272 players ranked in the 247Sports Composite for the 2024 cycle and another 521 who had profiles in the 247Sports database. When the final rankings for the 2023 cycle were completed a few months ago, there were 2,304 players ranked in the composite. In 2022, there were 2,224 recruits ranked.

On Wednesday, The Athletic caught up with Ivins to ask him for some early impressions of the 2024 class, including which states or regions seem to have more talent than usual, which positions are loaded with more prospects and which positions seem to be down.

For starters, Ivins said it’s important to note there are certain areas of the country where some hard data remains unavailable because national camps and combines have yet to be conducted there. Louisiana is a good example of a state where there aren’t many early events in the calendar.

Florida has more players ranked in the 247Sports Composite than any other state. There’s a reason. California has 247 players ranked overall by 247Sports but only 122 are ranked in the composite. That’s a product of other recruiting services being a tad behind in evaluations.

“In terms of offseason events and the way the calendar is structured, everything starts in Florida because of the weather, right?” Irvins said. “And then it goes out to California and kind of circles back through. Data points are always going to be important to us. Some of those states we’ve had data on for a few months now. For us, the Under Armour camp in Baltimore, and then when they get up in New Jersey, and Ohio, those are monsters for us because some of those kids haven’t had the opportunities that others in other parts of the country have (to be seen). There’s always going to be some blind spots, and you’re always trying to figure out ways to try to shore those up and get what you can.”

One example of a “blind spot” for most recruiting analysts is the state of South Dakota. Last year, Lincoln Kienholz was a three-star recruit ranked No. 879 overall in late June when he committed to Washington. By late November, he was No. 384. In mid-December, he flipped to Ohio State and ended up as a four-star who ranked No. 190.

“He’s a kid who never really went to anything, and we didn’t get eyes on him until the All American bowl, which was a month and a half before our rankings went final,” Ivins said. “There’s always some (prospects) I call Yetis. Where it’s like, ‘Hey, man, we really like this kid, but we don’t have any third party verified information.’ We haven’t seen them in person. So, I think the common fan doesn’t really understand that. It’s hard to justify putting them (up) in the rankings without checking off some more boxes. So sometimes we’re holding out and waiting until we can get it.”

There are four five-star quarterbacks in the 2024 cycle — one fewer than a year ago. Ivins said 247Sports did its last rankings update for quarterbacks in March. They’ll update them again after the Elite 11 Finals in June.

“People say, it’s shorts and shorts,” Ivins said. “But at the end of the day, a good chunk of the top quarterbacks in the class are all going to be there, competing alongside each other. For us, it’s not just how they do in drills or how they score, but how they carry themselves amongst their peers. How do they attack, prepare and approach the event?”

What states/regions are hot?

The New England area has become a hotspot for blue blood programs of late. In the 2024 cycle, seven of the region’s 15 recruits who are ranked in the 247Sports Composite are blue-chippers, and six players are committed to Power 5 schools.

“The synopsis behind that is kind of the boarding school boom, a little bit,” Ivins said. “You got a lot of kids coming in, whether it be international, or from over over, over the pond or even over the border. There’s been an influx of talent there for sure.”

Another “low-key good region” this year is “the Heartland,” Ivins said.

“Maybe the rankings don’t reflect that yet, but there are some intriguing athletes that we’ve come across that some of us are kind of crushing over from a scouting perspective,” Ivins said. “That bodes well if you’re the Iowa Hawkeyes or if you’re Matt Rhule and Nebraska. Last year, Nebraska had some talent as well. You had Malachi Coleman, Kadyn Proctor, who ended up at Alabama. You look at you look at it this year: Carter Nelson, who’s playing eight-man football in Nebraska. He’s a lock for my Freaks List. You have Derek Weisskopf, an Iowa commitment at linebacker. He’s a freak when it comes to track and field. There’s another linebacker from Iowa that’s also committed to the Hawkeyes, Cam Buffington, who is playing eight-man football. There’s some guys there and then you got Cody Fox, who is committed to the Hawkeyes.”

Two other states Ivins said he’s seen a rise in talent over time are Tennessee and North Carolina.

“Jadyn Davis goes to school in Charlotte. He’s bounced around, but he’s committed to Michigan,” Ivins said. “And then in the 2025 cycle, David Sanders is our (No. 1 prospect). He’s at the same school (Charlotte Providence Day). We’re high on three guys from North Carolina in that 2025 cycle that are all ranked inside our initial 32.”

What positions are hot?

Receiver, tight end and edge rusher are the most loaded positions in the 2024 cycle.

“We came out with our first full field of five-stars, and of our 32, we have eight receivers in there,” Ivins said. “We like all of our guys. That’s what I’d identify as the strength of the class at this stage. At tight end, there’s a lot of different skill sets. It’s kind of like whatever your flavor is when it comes to the tight ends. There’s some guys out there, definitely a nice year to be in the market for a tight end. There also seems to be an abundance of guys that can get after the quarterback. There’s a lot of different body types and guys who can play multiple systems and schemes.”

Two positions a bit deficient this cycle in terms of elite talent are offensive tackle and running back. Ivins also expects there to be some changes in the rankings at cornerback.

“We’ve seen guys go from three-stars to five-stars at offensive tackle in the past,” he said. “We only have one offensive tackle right now inside our top 50 (Brandon Baker from Southern California) and don’t feel good about that. But that’s just kind of the reality when it comes to it. Still looking, but that guy might not be there. There also doesn’t seem to be a guy separating himself at running back. Two years ago, it was Nick Singleton. This past year, we had a lot of back and forth on the top three: Cedric Baxter, Rueben Owens and Justice Haynes.”

Where is the talent?

As Ivins said, a lot will change with the Class of 2024, but we thought it would interesting to take a look which states are producing the best talent in the cycle. To reflect both both quantity and quality, we developed a formula to give each state points — five points for a five-star, three points for a top-100 prospect, two points for a blue-chipper and one point for a top-1,000 recruit. And a player only counted for one category; a five-star gives a state only five points, not eight (five plus three more for also being in the top 100).

(Photo of Jeremiah Smith: Manny Navarro / The Athletic)

Manny Navarro has been the University of Miami beat writer for The Athletic since September 2018. He's also the host of the "Wide Right" podcast. Manny's career started at The Miami Herald in October 1995 when he was a high school senior. He covered the Hurricanes, Heat, Marlins and high school sports for 23 years at the paper. He makes occasional appearances on WSVN's Sports Xtra on Sunday nights and is on the "Big O Show" with Orlando Alzugaray at 12:30 p.m. Tuesdays and Fridays. Follow Manny on Twitter @Manny_Navarro