Which under-the-radar players might be able to give your fantasy team a lift? Which chalky players might not be as safe as they seem? Our featured analysts name some potential sleepers and underachievers, along with start/sit advice for Week 16.
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Q: Which player outside of the top 100 in the FantasyPros flex rankings is a good sleeper start, and why do you think he has upside this week?
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)
“I have Cole Kmet in the 80s as a Flex option and ranked at TE9 this week. Fields is showing how much he likes having Kmet available both as an outlet and as a red-zone threat. Arizona has been good season-long against the position, but the Bears are favorites this week, and in the last three Arizona losses, they have given up three TDs to Tight Ends. The upside is there for Kmet, who scored last week and is averaging about six receptions for 45 yards over his last three games.”
– Steve Paulo (Razzball)
“Over the past seven games, Cole Kmet has had six or more targets in every game except for one. In those seven games, he is averaging 5.9 receptions and 47.3 receiving yards. Most of this production came with backup quarterbacks under center, and with Justin Fields back in the lineup, his floor and ceiling have never been higher. During that seven-game span, he is averaging 14.57 points in 1/2 PPR scoring. The Bears may not be one of the league’s elite offenses, but with Kmet being one of their most critical pieces, his volume all but guarantees him a weekly finish of TE5 or higher. Look for Kmet to once again put up 15 fantasy points even in a matchup with the Arizona Cardinals, who have been a surprisingly tough matchup for tight ends.”
– Aaron St Denis (The League Winners)
“Cole Kmet has quietly been the TE7 (HALF) so far this season. He has turned into one of Justin Fields‘ only reliable targets and finished TE9 (7 Tgt, 5 Rec, 23 Yds, 1 TD) last week against a formidable CLE Defense that has the 2nd lowest FPA (6.8 FPA; 2nd lowest PAE; -2.1 PAE) to TE’s. Kmet and the Bears are going up against ARI this week, who also is a tough D against TEs (5th lowest FPA; 7.7 FPA; 5h lowest PAE; -1.6 PAE). I expect him to be a playmaker and find ways to get open and finish as a mid-to-high TE1 this week.”
– Brian Barker (Barker’s Fantasy Football Analysis)
Hunter Henry (TE – NE)
“Hunter Henry has been the TE2 over the past two weeks, averaging 16.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran ranks 10th in targets (12) but is first in receiving touchdowns (three) and fourth in target per route run rate (27%) among tight ends with at least 30 routes run over the past two weeks (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos have surrendered the most fantasy points per game (13.6) and receiving touchdowns (nine) to tight ends this season, including 26.1 and three to Sam LaPorta last week. While he won’t have three touchdowns, Henry is too low as the TE15 in the rankings.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“Hunter Henry finds himself headed into Week 16 on a bit of a heater. The Pats TE has found paydirt three times in his last two games and has become a trusted target for Bailey Zappe or whoever has started at QB for the Pats this season. Out of Henry’s six scores this season, five of them have come in between the opponents’ 19 and 1-yard line. Henry has a stunning matchup against the Broncos on deck, who, since their Week 9 bye, have allowed six TE scores, including two at home. Henry is a TD or bust option, but given his recent success, I would bank on him finding one.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Jameson Williams (WR – DET)
“The Lions seem to have woken up from their slumber and are finally starting to use their 2022 first-round pick, Jameson Williams. Williams is an electric athlete with game-breaking speed and prototypical size, who tore up one of the best defenses ever assembled in college football, the 2021 Georgia Bulldogs, not once but twice. The conditions inside climate-controlled U.S. Bank Stadium will be perfect for passing if Detroit can give Jared Goff time to throw. I guess you could say Ringo is banking on former All-American WR Jameson Williams, offering a good return for fantasy owners this week, haha! Of course, when it comes to telling funny jokes, it’s a much riskier investment for Ringo’s readers, haha!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Demarcus Robinson (WR – LAR)
“Demarcus Robinson is on a bit of a heater, scoring 15.5, 13.6, and 14.9 fantasy points in the last three weeks. Robinson played a season-high 95% of snaps last week. He has been super efficient, only averaging three receptions this time. But he is the only player in this range that has put up any type of consistent production as of late. Robinson has a clear role in this offense, and his big play ability might be available on your waiver wire.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
Jayden Reed (WR – GB)
“Out of all flex-qualified players ranking outside the top 100 overall this week, Jayden Reed is one of the sneakiest plays. I honestly can’t believe he is widely ranked outside the top 100 overall players. He plays a little bit of a wide-back role for the Packers, and he is Jordan Love‘s trusted target. They run him, they pass to him, they count on him… He seems like the most likely WR to score a TD in Green Bay each and every week. Start him as a WR3 with confidence. ”
– Smitty (TheFantasyFootballShow)
Dontayvion Wicks (WR – GB)
“Dontayvion Wicks is coming into his own at the right time and as injuries are mounting in the wide receiver ranks. In Week 15, he caught 6-of-7 targets for 97 yards. This week he is going up against a struggling Carolina Panthers team! With this plus matchup, Wick could continue to shine and possibly sneak into the end zone, gifting a touchdown to fantasy owners this weekend. ”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Michael Wilson (WR – ARI)
“Michael Wilson could turn into a deep-league option, depending on how Arizona’s injuries shake out. Note: Marquise Brown and Greg Dortch missed practice on Wednesday. After aggravating a heel injury in Week 15, Brown appears on the wrong side of suiting up. We’ll see about Dortch, but regardless of his status, there’s 7+ target upside for Wilson at Chicago.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
Q: Which player inside the top 40 in the FantasyPros flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy managers this week?
David Montgomery (RB – DET)
“David Montgomery has been outstanding this year, thanks to his touchdown production. However, he has gone back-to-back games without a touchdown. Montgomery hasn’t had a rushing attempt inside the five-yard line, while Jahmyr Gibbs has 100% of those attempts over the past two weeks. Furthermore, Gibbs has been the better running back lately, averaging higher yards per rushing attempt (6.8 vs. 4.6) and missed forced tackle per attempt rate (24% vs. 18%) over the past three weeks (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings have surrendered only 14.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and four rushing touchdowns to running backs over the past 13 weeks. Montgomery is a borderline must-sit in Week 16.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)
“Here is the deal with Chuba Hubbard. While the rushing usage and efficiency have been outstanding, you simply have to get a touchdown for him to return serious value. In this offense, can you simply know for sure if that is coming? Despite 23 and 22 carries in Weeks 14 and 15, Hubbard logged 10.6 points (RB24) and 11.3 points (RB18) in half with no scores. While those are nice, they aren’t good enough to save anyone’s day in a semifinal. While the Packers present a good matchup for him in Week 16, I just can’t get on board with Hubbard being a top 40 must-start guy. If he scores, he will have a very good day. If he does not, it will all just be a bit meh.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
A.J. Brown (WR – PHI)
“Not saying A.J. Brown is due for a terrible game, but these rankings have him at FLEX6/WR2, and I have him at FLEX21/WR5. My point is simply that in a division rivalry game like NYG vs PHI, especially in a primetime spot (Christmas Day counts!), scoring is often depressed, and expecting Brown to win you your fantasy playoff matchup this week may not be the safest bet…”
– Steve Paulo (Razzball)
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
“Atlanta head coach, Arthur Smith, should be tried for crimes against the fantasy community. Bijan Robinson’s lack of usage (along with Kyle Pitts) is maddening for fantasy owners who see their incredible talent being wasted, which has translated to neither reaching their potential. It’s hard to envision Bijan’s role growing in a crucial playoff week for fantasy owners. The stout Colts’ defensive line doesn’t inspire much confidence for Mark Ringo to place his lineup order. Give me two grilled chicken sandwiches, extra mayo, hold the Bijan mustard, and a side order of terrible jokes to go please haha!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Ty Chandler (RB – MIN)
“I loved Ty Chandler’s role in the Minnesota offense while Alexander Mattison was out of the lineup. Two weeks ago against the Raiders, he saw 15 total touches, and last week against the Bengals, he recorded a whopping 27 touches. The problem is, by all accounts, Alexander Mattison will be back in the lineup for Week 16. The running back by committee approach that is certainly going to be employed by Minnesota is bad enough, but when you add in a matchup with the Detroit Lions, who are allowing only 14.8 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, I’d like to avoid this backfield altogether.”
– Aaron St Denis (The League Winners)
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
“Garrett Wilson still finds himself inside the top 40 flex rankings, despite the potential of Trevor Siemian at quarterback. He let a lot of us down last week, and if you survived or had a bye, you don’t want to trust him this week. Washington is a pristine matchup, but you just can’t trust this Jets offense right now. Our only hope is Zach Wilson playing, and that tells you all you need to know. ”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – NE)
“The one player that I doubt the most that ranks inside the top 40 flex-qualified players for Week 16 is: Zeke Elliott. He ranks around 20th. He thrived in Week 14, scoring as the RB1 overall that week. He stepped right in for Rhamondre Stevenson and thrived. That said, he only averaged 3.09 YPC, and his massive point totals came from his seven receptions for 72 yards and one TD that week. That won’t happen every week, and he once again ran poorly in Week 15 (11 carries for 25 yards). Denver looks like an easy target this week (ranking 32nd against the run), but Zeke is a shell of himself. Consider other options IF you have them.”
– Smitty (TheFantasyFootballShow)
Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
“Tony Pollard only has 11 carries for 52 yards in Week 15 and has eclipsed 70 yards once since Week 4! The Cowboys are a pass-first team. The Miami Dolphins’ defense is starting to play at a championship level. Add all those together, and Pollard is sure to underperform his RB7 ranking (Half PPR), sending fantasy owners home with another lackluster performance.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
“Austin Ekeler’s been held under 10 PPR points in three of the past five weeks. Clearly, he’s not close to full health. In fact, per ESPN, Ekeler “walks sideways down the stairs every morning” due to several ankle injuries. Yikes. Facing a surging Bills defense, you’d be fortunate to get RB2 numbers out of the Charger.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
“Aaron Jones has been a roller coaster this season, and I do not want anything to do with him, especially during fantasy playoffs. He’s been good vs good run defenses, bad vs bad run defenses, and everywhere in between. He has also been nursing injuries all season and is currently “Questionable” with a hurt knee and finger (which are both pretty essential body parts for RBs). Does GB need Jones to do well this week? Yes, but I do not expect him to be effective since he has been the opposite of consistent and reliable. I would imagine that if he is on your roster, you already have backup option(s), and I would pivot to them this week. ”
– Brian Barker (Barker’s Fantasy Football Analysis)
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