Targets, targets and more targets.
I always look for volume and opportunity with my sleepers, but for this week in particular I'm focusing on targets.
Looking at this week's consensus half-PPR rankings, there are some players ranked far too low considering how often they're on the field and how they've been targeted the last few weeks.
CHICAGO, IL - SEPTEMBER 20: Jaron Brown #13 of the Arizona Cardinals reacts after catching a... [+] six-yard touchdown pass against the Chicago Bears in the first quarter at Soldier Field on September 20, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
1. Arizona Cardinals WR Jaron Brown (FantasyPros Rank, 35)
TheCardinals run a lot of plays.
I wrote about it in my running back sleepers post hyping up Andre Ellington, so I'll keep it brief here, but Arizona averages a league-best 71.5 plays per game, while their defense allows the seventh-mostin the league.What this means from a fantasy perspective,is that each player on their team has been on the field more than every other offense in the NFL. More plays = more opportunities for targets, yards and scores.
Just a little over a year after major knee surgery, Jaron Brown is one of the Cardinals capitalizing on these extra opportunities.
Over the last two weeks Brown has played 158 snaps on offense, including 95 percent of them in Week 4.In his last three games, he's seen 28 targets. He should have had two touchdowns in Week 3, but one was negated by a penalty.
This week, Brown and the Cardinals face anEagles secondary that has allowed more receptions and more yards to wide receivers than any other team in theleague.
Jaron Brown is developing nicely.
He caught 7 of his 10 tight window targets (< 1 yard of separation) for 86 yards in Week 4 #NextGenStats pic.twitter.com/iAKgPde0jc— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 5, 2017
Listed as6.5-point underdogs, expect the Cardinals to beplaying from behind andforced to throw in what's becoming a weekly tradition for them in 2017.Since David Johnson went down,Arizona hasone of the worst running games in the league, and Chris Johnson hasn't made it any better. Everyone gets pumped up about Larry Fitzgerald, as they should, but Brown has been just as effective.
Jaron Brown vs. Larry Fitzgerald last three weeks:
29 tgts, 14 rec, 205 yds TD
28 tgts, 19 rec, 202 yds, 2 TDs— Alex Gelhar (@AlexGelhar) October 1, 2017
The Eagles have given up the fourth-most points to opposing fantasy wide receivers this season, and the most points over the last two weeks.
This is as good a matchup as it gets, and it's a crime that Brown is ranked this low.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 24: Brandon Marshall #15 of the New York Giants reacts in front of... [+] Brandon Graham #55 of the Philadelphia Eagles in the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field on September 24, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Eagles defeated the Giants 27-24. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
2. NewYork Giants WR Brandon Marshall (FantasyPros Rank, 42)
The name of the gameis targets, and Brandon Marshallis getting his.
Aftertotaling just two catches on nine targets for 27 total yards in his first two games, Marshall has hauled in 14 balls on 21 targets in the last two weeks for 112 yards. He's yet to find the endzone, but theopportunities are there, the Giants just need to do a better job of getting him the ball (h/tip @BaldyNFL.)
.@giants at the 1/4 pole. In review how is it that on a pivotal 4-1 v the @Eagles did they not take this shot to Marshall? #Baldybreakdowns pic.twitter.com/qI1zc0JeZn
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) October 4, 2017
Heading into a matchup with the Chargers, a secondary that's allowed just the 12th-most points to opposing fantasy wide receivers this year, it doesn't look all that promising for BMarsh.
However, if you dive into the details a little more, things look promising.
Casey Hayward has developed into one of the top corners in all of football. He'll shadow the opponent's top wide receiver, and most of the time shut them down,as he did Alshon Jeffery last week. This inflates the Chargers' overall numbers. So while Odell Beckham may struggle with Hayward locked on him all afternoon, Marshall (and Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram) are free to take advantage of the rest of the secondary.
If you look at Marshall's production on the season, you'll come away underwhelmed. But, if you're looking at a Giants offense over the last few weeks that's thrived with a healthy OBJ back, a tight end in Engram that's creating havoc in the middle of the field, and a young wide receiver in Shepard that's re-discovered his rookie season form, you what looks like an elite passing offense that Marshall is a huge part of.
Thetargets are there. The redzone opportunities are there. We just need to cash in.
BALTIMORE, MD - OCTOBER 01: JuJu Smith-Schuster #19 of the Pittsburgh Steelers celebrates scoring a... [+] touchdown in the second quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on October 1, 2017 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (FantasyPros Rank, 64)
The Steelers' offense hasn't clicked yet.
Le'Veon Bell didn't top 100 yards until Week 4. Antonio Brown threw a tantrum on the sideline...in Week 4. Ben Roethlisberger hasn't thrown for more than 300 yards or two touchdowns in any game this season.
Whathappened tothis high-octane offense?
It's still in there, we just have to be a little patient.
It's well-documented how much the Steelers, in particular Big Ben, struggle on the road. Coming home this week should give Smith-Schuster and the Steelers an extra boost, even with a matchup against the potentially scary Jaguars defense.
Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye may be the top CB duo in the league. Their front-seven has the potential to be one of the top units in the league. But, as great as this team looks on the stat sheet, and they look fantastic having allowed the fewest points to opposing fantasy quarterbacksand wide receivers this season, the competition they've faced aren't exactly world beaters.
Tom Savage and Deshaun Watson's first half of NFL football.
The Jets.
The Ravens.
Marcus Mariota.
Not exactly Hall of Fame competition.
So I expect the Steelers offense to be able to move the ball and score points, with Smith-Schuster playing a part on the inside.
20-year-old Juju Smith-Schuster has been in on 75% of the total snaps and 89% of Big Ben's dropbacks over the last two weeks.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 2, 2017
Being on the field as much as he has will lead to more targets, especially this weekgoing against the aforementioned Jaguars' stud corners. AntonioBrown and Martavis Bryant will line up against Ramsey and Bouye, leaving the Steelers' new number three receiver (and tight end Jesse James) as a primary targets for Big Ben.
Projected to win by 8.5 points, Pittsburgh is Vegas' biggest favorite of the week so they're going to put points on the board. His floor may be low, but with touchdowns in two of the last three weeks and a consistently growing snap rate, Smith-Schuster is a valueall the way down at No. 64 in the rankings.
